Showing posts with label hypothesis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hypothesis. Show all posts

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Yes, But What Theory Are You Testing?



Urban ecology talks and papers often begin with statements like these:

  • More than half the world's human population now lives in cities.

  • Urban areas in the United States cover 3% of the country's area.

  • Cities are harbingers of global warming, and already represent the drier and warmer conditions many habitats will increasingly experience.

Like other scientific research areas of immense practical value, the justification for urban ecological studies often ends with that: It's important for solving problems!  It matters to people because that's where most of them live!  Those rationales are reasonable and true.

But they are not enough.  Urban ecological science, like any science must also have its theoretical foundation.  Every cutting edge science must do one of three things:

  • Discover new phenomena or a new way to relate phenomena in the material world.

  • Build a new theory, or expand and clarify an existing theory.

  • Test some existing or emerging theory.

Unless it does one or more of these things, science is a dry and uninteresting -- if sometimes practically important -- pursuit.  Turning the bright light of theory on urban ecological science reveals a discipline that too often gets by on importance rather than scientific significance.   

Undoubtedly, more data at a variety of scales are needed in urban ecology.  And better comparisons among urban areas across a variety of geographies, cultures, climates, and histories are needed.  Furthermore, better integration of biological, social, and physical data and approaches are needed.  And so too are better connections of the substance of the science with practical professions, each with its own theories and modes of application.  Data that answer questions posed by citizens, policy makers, decision leaders, and advocacy groups are in great demand as well.  This is appropriate.

But without strengthening our theory, the discipline will languish in a conceptual backwater, responding to headlines that identify the important but ad hoc needs and interests of other people. 

So I return to my opening question, directed at ecological scientists of cities-suburban-exurban systems: How are you advancing the theory of the discipline?  How do your observations and experiments improve our understanding of cities as scientific phenomena?  What theory are you helping to build?  How do your models advance the concepts, generalizations, or mechanisms that the theory requires?  How does your work test the larger theory, or test some specific models or hypotheses that the theory has suggested?  In other words, the question to consider here is not about the social importance of urban ecology, but about its contributions to the larger program of advancing scientific understanding.

Coda.

Importance is a legitimate guide for science.  But societal importance can't be the only reason for doing science.  Advancing the integrity, soundness, and scope of the science itself are additional goals that every researcher needs to consider.   

I want to emphasize that I am not saying to abandon societally important urban research.  Far from it.  But I believe it is very healthy for the science, which is the larger structure that supports "important" research after all, itself is sometimes the focus for improvement.  Asking "What theory are you testing?" keeps that focus in mind.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

The Evolution of Urban Heterogeneity Thinking

The heterogeneity of cities has been acknowledged as one of their most striking features for a very long time.  Spatial heterogeneity characterized the ancient, cosmologically oriented cities of the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas (Lynch 1960; e.g. Fig. 1).  Social heterogeneity of cities, compared to rural village life, was recognized by the founders of modern sociology (Wirth 1945).  Urbanists, including urban designers, planners, community organizers, architects, among others, continue to be impressed with, engaged by, and responsive to the heterogeneity of cities and urban regions (Lefebvre 2003). 


Figure 1: The ancient Aztec city of
Tenochtitlan, a cosmological, 
political city.  Heterogeneity appears
as water, land, made land, ceremonial
and residential structures, and
agricultural areas. 
Although ecologists are admittedly relatively new comers to the city and the urban region as a subject of study, they come with a significant toolkit to deal with heterogeneity (Tischendorf and Fahrig 2000).  There is also a rich conceptual foundation for understanding heterogeneity within ecology (Wiens 1995, Pickett et al. 2001, Wu and David 2002).  In particular, a recent treatise on the theory of ecology illustrates the conceptual drawer of this toolkit (Scheiner and Willig 2011).  They summarize the most inclusive foundations of ecology in eight principles (Box 1).  Fully five of these principles mention heterogeneity by name or embed the core concept of heterogeneity within their scope.  These fundamentals are operationalized with such more specific disciplines within ecology as landscape ecology, metapopulation and metacommunitiy theories, succession, biogeography, evolutionary ecology, and ecosystem ecology.  

--------------------------------------------------------
Box 1.  Principles of General Ecological Theory, from Scheiner and Willig (2011: 13).  Quoting [With some explanations inserted in brackets, and the term heterogeneity or conceptual equivalents italicized]:
1. Organisms are distributed in space and time in a heterogeneous manner.
2. Organisms interact with their abiotic and biotic environments.
3. Variation in the characteristics of organisms results in heterogeneity of ecological patterns and processes.
4. The distribution of organisms and their interactions depend on contingencies. [Contingencies may be defined as heterogeneities in events, processes, resources, and stresses.]
5. Environmental conditions as perceived by organisms are heterogeneous in space and time.
6. Resources as perceived by organisms are finite and heterogeneous in space and time.
7. Birth rates and death rates are a consequence of interactions with the abiotic and biotic environment.
8. The ecological properties of species are the result of evolution. [N.B. Evolution by natural selection rests on the heritable heterogeneity or variation in organisms, and the degree to which it matches the prevailing, heterogeneous environment.]
-------------------------------------------------------

The practical tools of ecology also address heterogeneity, and do so increasingly.  Most conspicuous among these tools are those supporting landscape ecology.  In this genus of ecology, the concern is with the reciprocal relationship of pattern and process.  Consequently, ways to measure spatial differentiation are central to the discipline.  Gradients, patches, and patch mosaics are measured via field study, remote sensing, and statistical modeling.  Parameters such as patch size, patch shape, boundary thickness and porosity, nearest neighbor features, and so on, suggest and are applied to spatially-oriented questions.  Heterogeneity can be assessed in genetic, behavioral, and communication activities in populations, or in the distribution of competitive and facilitative interactions among species.  Changes in spatial heterogeneity over time is measured when concern is with such phenomena as succession, disturbance, migration, and ecosystem process rates, for example.  There is, simply, no facet of contemporary ecology that does not address and profit from understanding spatial and temporal heterogeneity (Tilman and Kareiva 1997, Lovett et al. 2005, Leibold 2011).

Fig. 2. Heterogeneity as cause and
consequence, or driver and outcome.
The urban realm – cities, suburbs, exurbs (CSE), and the urbanized regions they constitute – presents both the need and the opportunity to meld the heterogeneities recognized by the social sciences with that recognized by biophysical sciences (McGrath and Pickett 2011).  Thus sociology, economics, political ecology (a social science), diffusion of innovation, social network theory, and governance theory among others, and the various flavors of biophysical sciences, such as soil science, hydrology, biogeochemistry, plant and animal community ecology, biotic population ecology, microbial ecology, and others, must be in dialog.  And that dialog must address a variety of heterogeneities.  Not all heterogeneities must appear in all interdisciplinary models, but hypotheses about particular couplings will guide which heterogeneities are relevant over the long term.

The joint concern with heterogeneity by the social and the biophysical sciences in urban areas suggests a large hypothesis:  Spatial heterogeneity acts as a driver and an outcome that affect ecological processes in cities, suburbs, and exurbs (Figure 2).


Spiral Causality in Heterogeneity

This feedback model (Figure 2) may seem at first glance to be hopelessly circular.  But pull the circle apart, like a mental slinky, and a spiral form of hypothetical argumentation appears.  The spiral plays out over time.  The abstract spiral model of heterogeneity as driver-outcome-driver-outcome, etc., would need to be filled in by particular features and moved forward by particular ecological or social events.  This is how that might look (Figure 3):
Fig. 3. Converting apparently circular causality to spiral causality in which the action of different kinds of heterogeneity
can be understood and studied as linked outcomes and drivers.  The spiral begins with a set of boundary conditions or
initial heterogeneity.  Human or natural events convert that heterogeneity into a driver for further interaction.

Heterogeneity as Driver and Outcome: A Baltimore Scenario

A hypothetical example, likely to soon to be a testable reality in Baltimore and many other American cities located in the Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome, is the interaction of the invading emerald ash borer with the distribution of planted and volunteer ash trees (Fraxinus spp.).  Ash trees are not uniformly distributed across CSE space.  Nor are the invading beetles.  This suggests the first link in a spiral of causation involving spatial heterogeneity (Figure 4).  It is based on the interaction between the initial heterogeneous distribution of ash trees, the presumably patchy invasion of the emerald ash borer, AND the patchy management by people of both the ash population and the insect.  These interventions and events result in a second kind of heterogeneity, the spatially distributed mortality (including preemptive removal) of ash trees. The initial condition is labeled an outcome, the events of invasion or management act on that outcome to produce a new spatial pattern – ash mortality, that then becomes a driver for further spatially explicit outcomes and the interventions or events they stimulate in nature or in society.  This same logic is played out in the remainder of the cascade involving patchy altered thermal environments, human risk of heat stress, and social and individual responses to heat stress in the altered environment (Figure 4). 

Fig. 4. A hypothetical model of the relationship of different kinds of heterogeneity that might exist and be causally linked following the invasion of the emerald ash borer in Baltimore or other cities.  The boxes attached to the event arrows can be
both biophysical and human generated.

Heterogeneity and the Urban Ecosystem

This is the kind of logic we wish to explore to generate specific testable hypotheses about 1) heterogeneity as both a driver and an outcome affecting ecological processes in the urban system of Baltimore, 2) the integration of human and natural processes in the urban ecosystem, and 3) the intersection of two of ecology’s fundamental concepts: heterogeneity and the ecosystem as it is manifested in urban areas.  BES IV will investigate the role of spatial heterogeneity as a driver and outcome as it underlies and affects the basic structures and interactions in the urban ecosystem (Figure 5).
Fig. 5. The human ecosystem, consisting of biotic, physical,
social, and built components, all interacting within the
context of spatial various kinds of heterogeneity that
affect the interactions among components, and therefore
the structure and function of the components.


References

Lefebvre, H. 2003. The urban revolution. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.
Leibold, M. A. 2011. The metacommunity concept and its theoretical underpinnings. Pages 163-183 in S. M. Scheiner and M. R. Willig, editors. The theory of ecology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Lovett, G. M., C. G. Jones, M. G. Turner, and K. C. Weathers, editors. 2005. Ecosystem function in heterogeneous landscapes. Springer, New York.
Lynch, K. 1960. The image of the city. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
McGrath, B. and S. T. A. Pickett. 2011. The metacity: a conceptual framework for integrating ecology and urban design. Challenges 2011:55-72.
Pickett, S. T. A., M. L. Cadenasso, and C. G. Jones. 2001. Generation of heterogeneity by organisms: creation, maintenance, and transformation.in M. L. Hutchings, E. A. John, and A. J. A. Stewart, editors. Ecological consequences of habitat heterogeneity, the annual symposium of the British Ecological Society. Blackwell, London.
Scheiner, S. M. and M. R. Willig. 2011. A general theory of ecology. Pages 3-18 in S. M. Scheiner and M. R. Willig, editors. The theory of ecology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Tilman, D. and P. Kareiva, editors. 1997. Spatial ecology: the role of space in population dynamics and interspecific interactions. Princeton University Press, Princeton 
Tischendorf, L. and L. Fahrig. 2000. On the usage and measurement of landscape heterogeneity. Oikos 90:7-19.
Wiens, J. A. 1995. Landscape mosaics and ecological theory. Pages 1-26 in L. Hansson, L. Fahrig, and G. Merriam, editors. Mosaic landscapes and ecological processes. Chapman and Hall, New York.
Wirth, L. 1945. Human ecology. American Journal of Sociology 50:483-488.
Wu, J. G. and J. L. David. 2002. A spatially explicit hierarchical approach to modeling complex ecological systems: theory and applications. Ecological Modelling 153:7-26.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Press-Pulse Dynamics: A Hypothetical Feedback Model for Long-Term Social-Ecological Research


An important conceptual resource for BES III has recently appeared online. This publication presents the feedback cycle between social and ecological structures and functions as mediated by ecosystem services and by press and pulse events.

This conceptual framework highlights that the dynamics of press and pulse events is a key link in the integration of social and bioecological processes and structures. A version of the feedback cycle adopted for BES III, and identified by its older label of the Integrated Science for Society and Environment (ISSE) appears as Figure 2 in the BES proposal and in an earlier post on the Web Log. This framework is perhaps really best described as a model template, which can guide construction of more specific, testable models and hypotheses. This paper deserves serious study by researchers and scholars affiliated with BES.

The publication appears in the Ecological Society of America's journal, Frontiers in Ecology and Environment. Members of the Society and persons at subscribing institutions can find the paper through this Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1890/100068

The full citation of the online publication is as follows:
Scott L Collins, Stephen R Carpenter, Scott M Swinton, Daniel E Orenstein, Daniel L Childers, Ted L Gragson, Nancy B Grimm, J Morgan Grove, Sharon L Harlan, Jason P Kaye, Alan K Knapp, Gary P Kofinas, John J Magnuson, William H McDowell, John M Melack, Laura A Ogden, G Philip Robertson, Melinda D Smith, and Ali C Whitmer. 2010. An integrated conceptual framework for long-term social–ecological research. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (e-View)

A key phrase from the abstract of this article is, "Here, we present an iterative framework, “Press–Pulse Dynamics” (PPD), that integrates the biophysical and social sciences through an understanding of how human behaviors affect “press” and “pulse” dynamics and ecosystem processes. Such dynamics and processes, in turn, influence ecosystem services – thereby altering human behaviors and initiating feedbacks that impact the original dynamics and processes."

Photo courtesy of University of Maryland, Baltimore County. View from the roof of the Administration Building toward downtown Baltimore.